ESPN
May 31, 2024, 07:54 AM ET
Islam Makhachev, ESPN's No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter, puts his UFC lightweight title on the line against a fellow lightweight for the first time when he takes on Dustin Poirier in the main event at UFC 302 in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. ESPN2/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
Makhachev has defended his title twice already, but both defenses were against former featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, who moved up to challenge for the 155-pound belt. Makhachev beat Volkanovki in both fights by unanimous decision and first-round knockout, respectively. Poirier, a former interim lightweight champion, will make his third attempt at the 155-pound title. In his last fight, he beat Benoît Saint Denis by second-round knockout at UFC 299 to earn this title shot.
In the co-main event, former middleweight champion Sean Strickland looks to get back into the title picture when he faces Paulo Costa. Strickland lost the title via split decision to Dricus Du Plessis in his last fight at UFC 297. Costa enters the fight following a unanimous decision loss to Robert Whittaker at UFC 298.
Brett Okamoto spoke to retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds his insights and analysis on the main event, co-main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Lightweight: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Alan Jouban, retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst
How Makhachev wins: It's a cut-and-dry path to victory for Makhachev: Takedowns and ground-and-pound. However, Poirier's last fight against Benoit Saint Denis was deceptive because Poirier ended up on his back a lot, but he was comfortable giving that up. I don't think he felt a high level of pressure from Saint Denis on the mat. It seemed that Saint Denis' pressure was that of a muscular purple belt, which Poirier felt he could take risks against.
Poirier won't be jumping guillotines against Makhachev, because he knows he won't be able to get back up as he did against Saint Denis. I'll also add that if we don't see the obvious rear-naked choke or ground-and-pound from Makhachev, his kicks are very dangerous. He will look for that kick because Poirier is notorious for keeping that lead hand a little low, similar to the Philly Shell boxing style. Makhachev is fantastic at landing that kick.
How Poirier wins: This is a southpaw vs. southpaw matchup, which Poirier has excelled in historically. When you give a boxer the same stance, it opens up their jab, body shots and, for Poirier specifically, that low leg kick he likes to throw.
Everyone likes to talk about his hook, he has one of the best hooks in the game, but when I watch his finishes against Saint Denis and Conor McGregor, the straight left was the money shot. The right hook is the cleanup punch. He gets you hurt and then he puts you away with the right hook, but the shot that hurts you is the straight left. He needs to wobble Makhachev with the left hand.
X factor: That left hand for Poirier. That's the shot that turns your lights out.
Prediction: I have to go with my guy Poirier. It just feels like the stars have aligned. He's saying he's going to ride off into the sunset. Poirier by knockout, because that's the only way I see him winning.
Betting analysis
Parker: Makhachev to win inside the distance (-300). I'm a fan of Poirier, but Makhachev is a nightmare matchup for almost anyone. Makhachev has great striking, but he is at his best when he can use his wrestling to control the pace of a fight. Makhachev is also a high-IQ fighter who rarely makes mistakes. He will be more than aware of Poirier's hook and guillotine choke and won't put himself in a position to be caught. In his last fight, Poirier gave up his back too often, and against Makhachev that could spell trouble early and often.
Middleweight: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
How Strickland wins: Volume, use that long, unorthodox jab. Keep it close to Costa's face and frustrate him. This fight will be similar to Strickland's fight against Du Plessis, in that it will be a war of attrition that could be closely contested. I don't know if Costa can 'out-dog' Strickland if Strickland is using his length. Du Plessis can cover distance on you very well and he has an underestimated kick. Costa is more of a guy who backs you up with those T-Rex arms and then unloads on you. But having sparred many rounds with Strickland, he's not a guy who will just hang out on the fence and let that happen.
How Costa wins: He has to corner Strickland, and he must keep up with Strickland's pace for all five rounds. Work Strickland to the fence and, if possible, frame on him and throw punches in combinations. Costa wants to be the bully. He has to be the hammer, and he doesn't always do well when he's not.
X factor: Strickland's output and cardio. Costa's heavy hands.
Prediction: Strickland to win by decision.
Betting analysis
Parker: Strickland to win by KO/TKO or decision (-210). Strickland will be a tough task for Costa, especially for five rounds. Costa doesn't put out a ton of output and relies on his power too much, which won't bode well against Strickland, who puts out a ton of volume and has an unlimited gas tank.
Unless Costa catches Strickland early and puts him out, I expect Strickland to lead the dance with his jab and maintain a pace that Costa will struggle to match.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: Cesar Almeida vs. Roman Kopylov
Almeida to win (-120). Almeida appears to be on a similar trajectory as fellow Brazilian Alex Pereira, and I don't believe that stops against Kopylov. Unless Kopylov can turn into a wrestler, I don't see him beating Almeida in a fight that only takes place on their feet. Almeida, who only has five professional fights, has shown improvement in all aspects of MMA each time he steps into the cage. Look for Almeida to shut down the early takedown attempts of Kopylov and utilize his striking to get the win. Keep an eye on Almeida, if he can keep the fight standing, he can beat anyone in the division.
Lightweight: Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki
Dawson to win inside the distance. This feels like a perfect bounce-back matchup for Dawson. Solecki is coming off a brutal knockout loss and is primarily a grappler, which is where Dawson is his best. Dawson will have the striking edge, but will likely choose to out-grapple Solecki and go back to his grinding style. Though Dawson is coming off a KO loss as well, he still has a high ceiling and this matchup makes perfect sense to get his confidence back and likely a dominant win.
